:Product: 0808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4/1n event observed at
08/1701Z from Region 2135 (N11E36). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
417 km/s at 08/1528Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0920Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/2348Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 372 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (09 Aug, 11 Aug) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (10 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 123
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  006/005-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/25/10