:Product: 0103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/0947Z from Region 2253 (S07E09). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan,
06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 548 km/s at 03/0706Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/0000Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 02/2355Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jan), unsettled to active
levels on day two (05 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(06 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 149
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 155/155/150
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  011/015-012/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/25