:Product: 0104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/1536Z from Region 2253 (S07W04). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 473 km/s at 03/2245Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/1939Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/1336Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (05 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (06 Jan, 07 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 150
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 150/155/160
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  013/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  013/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  012/015-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/30/20