:Product: 0106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
06/1148Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
580 km/s at 05/2246Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/0357Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 06/0802Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 874 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Jan, 09
Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day two (08 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Jan,
08 Jan, 09 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 142
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 145/155/160
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  007/008-015/018-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/20
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/30