:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
11/0543Z from the west limb. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
657 km/s at 11/0652Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/0243Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0612Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 638 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 154
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 160/175/175
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  007/008-007/006-006/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/10