:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/0330Z from Region 2260 (N09W86). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jan,
18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
485 km/s at 16/0302Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/2300Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0235Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 125
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  010/012-012/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/40