:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
21/1142Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan,
24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
552 km/s at 21/1834Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 21/0658Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 21/1551Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan,
23 Jan, 24 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 124
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 125/130/135
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  012/015-012/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/45/45