:Product: 0123RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Jan 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 23/0253Z from Region 2268 (S10E60). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 475 km/s at 23/1726Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/0743Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 119 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (25 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (26 Jan). III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Jan 121 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 125/125/135 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 007/008-015/008-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/40/40 Minor Storm 05/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/60/60