:Product: 0124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/0740Z from Region 2268 (S10E48). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan,
27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 451 km/s at
23/2318Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2059Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1424Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Jan), unsettled to
active levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 125
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 125/135/145
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  015/018-015/018-007/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor Storm           20/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/60/25