:Product: 0208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/0558Z from Region 2277 (N09W70). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb,
11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
643 km/s at 08/1504Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/2111Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0310Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 276 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (09 Feb,
10 Feb, 11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 153
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  009/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/20