:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Feb,
19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 458 km/s at 17/1847Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/0142Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 17/0440Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet levels on
days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 119
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/05/05
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    40/05/05