:Product: 0222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb,
24 Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
370 km/s at 21/2125Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2129Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2331Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 118
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 120/120/130
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  008/010-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/20/20