:Product: 0224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1057Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb,
26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 552 km/s at 24/0155Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/0032Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 24/0114Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 114
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 120/125/130
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  023/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  010/012-010/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/20/20