:Product: 0306RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Mar 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 06/0457Z from Region 2297 (S17E81). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 527 km/s at 06/1939Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/1931Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/1937Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 753 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (08 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (09 Mar). III. Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Mar 127 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 142 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 007/008-009/012-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/35 Minor Storm 05/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/40/45