:Product: 0309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
09/1433Z from Region 2297 (S16E39). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
595 km/s at 08/2325Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2348Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/2050Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1148 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar,
11 Mar, 12 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 123
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/25