:Product: 0324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/0554Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar,
27 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
617 km/s at 23/2307Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1904Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1455Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11608 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Mar, 26 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (27 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 133
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  007/008-007/008-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/35