:Product: 0325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
25/0446Z from Region 2305 (S08E19). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar,
28 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
608 km/s at 25/1521Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/1202Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0929Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4999 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (27 Mar) and active to minor storm levels on day three (28 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 138
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 008/015/025
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  007/008-011/015-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/40
Minor Storm           01/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/35/55