:Product: 0331RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Mar 31 2230 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 30/2205Z from Region 2303 (N18W0*). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (01 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 446 km/s at 31/1413Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 31/1320Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 31/1034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 560 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Apr, 02 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day three (03 Apr). III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Mar 128 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 130/140/145 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 132 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 010/012-010/012-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/35 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/20/25 Major-severe storm 35/10/25