:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 09 0105 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2015
***** CORRECTION *****

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
08/1443Z from Region 2320 (S12E02). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Apr,
10 Apr, 11 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
07/2137Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/0649Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 07/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 450 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10
Apr) and quiet levels on day three (11 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 106
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 110/115/115
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr   NA/ 005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  014/020-014/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/35/15
Minor Storm           20/20/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/50/20

***** CORRECTION FOR SOLAR ACTIVITY *****