:Product: 0412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/0950Z from Region 2321 (N13E54). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
11/2252Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1339Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 11/2116Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 134
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  014/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10