:Product: 0426RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1149Z from Region 2331 (S10W59). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr, 29 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 330 km/s at
25/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1343 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Apr, 28 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (29 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Apr 119
Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        26 Apr 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20