:Product: 0507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/2000Z from Region 2339 (N13E47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at
06/2228Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 06/2111Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 0 nT at 07/1831Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10
May).

III.  Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 147
Predicted   08 May-10 May 145/145/145
90 Day Mean        07 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  021/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10