:Product: 0522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 May,
24 May, 25 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 611 km/s at
22/0332Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0705Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 May, 24 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (25 May).

III.  Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 May 099
Predicted   23 May-25 May 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        22 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25