:Product: 0525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May,
27 May, 28 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 368 km/s at
25/0124Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (28 May).

III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 097
Predicted   26 May-28 May 100/100/095
90 Day Mean        25 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/25