:Product: 0609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
09/0353Z from Region 2360 (N15W31). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
705 km/s at 09/0324Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1152Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/0010Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1380 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (11 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (12 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 137
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  022/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  012/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/05
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    40/25/10