:Product: 0611RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Jun 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 11/0855Z from Region 2367 (S19E70). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 674 km/s at 11/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1420Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6029 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Jun). III. Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jun 140 Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 015/020-011/015-012/016 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/40 Minor Storm 25/10/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/10 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/45/55