:Product: 0612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
12/0206Z from Region 2360 (N15W68). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (15 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 557 km/s at
11/2131Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2047Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1451Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8585 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jun), unsettled to active
levels on day two (14 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(15 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    30/30/20
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 137
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 140/135/130
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  012/015-013/016-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/25
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/55/30