:Product: 0615RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Jun 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/1032Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (16 Jun) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 633 km/s at 15/0126Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3307 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (18 Jun). III. Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun Class M 30/20/15 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Jun 135 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 126 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 019/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 014/018-009/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/10 Minor Storm 25/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 25/30/20 Major-severe storm 60/25/10