:Product: 0617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 18 0520 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
17/0001Z from Region 2371 (N11E66). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun,
20 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
623 km/s at 17/0346Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/2133Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/1320Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2803 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18-20 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 136
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 135/130/130
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10