:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 593 km/s at 04/2151Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 05/0040Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 05/0009Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels on
days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 125
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  021/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  010/012-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    50/20/20