:Product: 0708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/2310Z from Region 2381 (N14E17). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jul,
10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at
08/0141Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1935Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 954 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (10 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 129
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  006/005-009/012-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           05/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/55