:Product: 0710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/1613Z from Region 2385 (N07W53). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Jul) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
10/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/2054Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2748 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jul), unsettled
to active levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (13 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 129
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  017/025-015/018-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    55/50/30