:Product: 0712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 12 2150 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
667 km/s at 12/2021Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2113Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0820Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 654 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 116
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 115/110/110
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  020/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  009/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/20