:Product: 0714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1210Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (17 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
513 km/s at 14/0020Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2045Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0052Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1424 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 105
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  022/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20