:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 542 km/s at
17/0254Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0306Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7462 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jul, 20
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (19 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 097
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  015/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  006/008-008/010-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/35/35
Major-severe storm    20/35/30