:Product: 0723RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Jul 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (26 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 559 km/s at 23/1707Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/0314Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 23/0442Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Jul). III. Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Jul 089 Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 118 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 018/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 014/015-011/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/25/15