:Product: 0725RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jul,
27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
492 km/s at 25/0049Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/1208Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0021Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 993 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Jul, 28
Jul) and quiet levels on day two (27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 094
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul 100/105/110
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  009/008-006/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/10/25