:Product: 0730RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jul,
01 Aug, 02 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
445 km/s at 30/2030Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 30/2057Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/1850Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 824 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Jul), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (01 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (02 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jul 102
Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        30 Jul 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  016/018-020/024-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/55/40