:Product: 0807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/1941Z from Region 2396 (S17E02). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (08 Aug) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 597 km/s at 06/2313Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1818Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1253Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1851
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (09 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (10 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    40/55/55
Class X    05/10/10
Proton     01/01/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 122
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  015/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  013/015-015/019-018/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/55/50