:Product: 0814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0200Z from Region 2401 (S12E37). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug,
16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at
14/0816Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/1447Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 328 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (16 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (17
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 093
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 095/090/090
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  006/005-018/025-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           01/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/60/45