:Product: 0821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0948Z from Region 2403 (S14E23). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
558 km/s at 21/0106Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/2151Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/2118Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9116 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (23 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (24 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 110
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug 110/110/115
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  007/008-021/028-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/45/30
Minor Storm           05/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/70/40