:Product: 0825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
25/0631Z from Region 2403 (S15W31). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Aug,
27 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (28 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
461 km/s at 25/0113Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/1707Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1749Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1837 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Aug), quiet to active
levels on day two (27 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(28 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    60/55/50
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 121
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 120/125/125
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  007/006-009/012-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/35
Minor Storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/45/45