:Product: 0826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
26/1353Z from Region 2403 (S16W44). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Aug,
28 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (29 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 26/0413Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/0837Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1837Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 526 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Aug), unsettled to
active levels on day two (28 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (29 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    60/55/50
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 126
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  016/016-013/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           30/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/40/30