:Product: 0829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
28/2347Z from Region 2403 (S15W82). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (30 Aug) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (31 Aug)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 512 km/s at 29/0712Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/2119Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/2119Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 684
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Aug, 31 Aug)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Sep). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    55/40/05
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 100
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 100/095/095
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  028/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  009/010-009/008-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/45
Minor Storm           05/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/70