:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 585 km/s at 04/0527Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 04/1145Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/1206Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 371
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Sep, 07 Sep)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 090
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  010/012-008/008-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/35
Minor Storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/50