:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/1712Z from Region 2415 (S19W41). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Sep,
21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 483 km/s at 19/0518Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/0251Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/0628Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 425
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (20 Sep, 21
Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (22 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 106
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  020/030-022/030-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/35