:Product: 0920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
20/1803Z from Region 2415 (S19W56). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep,
23 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a
peak speed of 627 km/s at 20/0711Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 20/0536Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 20/0535Z.
Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level
of 3 pfu at 20/2045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 383 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Sep), unsettled
to active levels on day two (22 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (23 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (21 Sep, 22 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Sep 110
Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        20 Sep 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep  031/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  022/020-014/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/10
Minor Storm           20/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/35/20