:Product: 0922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (23 Sep, 24 Sep) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(25 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
707 km/s at 22/0715Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/0250Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0601Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 782 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (23 Sep, 25 Sep) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (24 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    30/25/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 107
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20