:Product: 0928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
28/1458Z from Region 2422 (S20W30). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30
Sep, 01 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 410 km/s at
28/0018Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1140Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0043Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Sep, 30 Sep) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 124
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  006/005-006/006-008/009

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/15/20