:Product: 0930RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Sep 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 30/1059Z from Region 2422 (S18W55). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at 30/0624Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 104 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct). III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct Class M 70/70/70 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Sep 131 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 130/130/120 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 105 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/008-015/018-015/014 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor Storm 05/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/40/50